{"schema_version":"sml.oos.decision.v2","generated_at":"2026-10-22T03:27:25.372Z","asset":"GME","state":"BASELINE_NOT_BEATEN","action":"AUDIT_SIGNAL_AGAINST_BASELINE","live_trading_authorized":false,"learned_weights_authorized":false,"reason":"Across 36 matching frozen GME outcome windows, model direction accuracy 50.0% does not beat always-long 77.8%. Descriptive bullish cohort performance is not evidence of incremental edge. Audit the bearish misses; no trade authorization.","evidence":{"window":"latest_500_frozen_forecasts_max","frozen_forecasts_in_window":41,"pending_full_horizon_in_window":25,"pending_5d_in_window":5,"minimum_resolved_5d":20,"minimum_per_direction":20,"pooled":{"resolved_5d":36,"hits_5d":18,"hit_rate_5d":0.5,"wilson_95":{"low":0.34474325409626827,"high":0.6552567459037317},"mean_underlying_directional_return_5d":0.0012584946946039843,"underlying_return_sample_5d":36},"bullish_calls":{"resolved_5d":24,"hits_5d":17,"hit_rate_5d":0.7083333333333334,"wilson_95":{"low":0.5083230633550337,"high":0.8508535180303913},"mean_underlying_directional_return_5d":0.04008158005713104,"underlying_return_sample_5d":24},"bearish_puts":{"resolved_5d":12,"hits_5d":1,"hit_rate_5d":0.08333333333333333,"wilson_95":{"low":0.014865094404917095,"high":0.35387991114111694},"mean_underlying_directional_return_5d":-0.07638767603045013,"underlying_return_sample_5d":12},"matched_always_long_baseline":{"name":"always_long_gme_on_identical_forecast_windows","matched_sample":36,"model_direction_hits":18,"always_long_direction_hits":28,"model_direction_accuracy":0.5,"always_long_direction_accuracy":0.7777777777777778,"accuracy_lift_vs_always_long":-0.2777777777777778,"model_mean_signed_underlying_return":0.0012584946946039843,"always_long_mean_underlying_return":0.052183612048237404,"mean_signed_return_difference":-0.05092511735363342,"outperforms_always_long_directionally":false,"disclaimer":"Benchmark uses identical future underlying windows. Both return series are hypothetical, ignore trading costs, and are not realizable option P&L. Overlapping windows may be correlated."},"directional_cohorts_above_descriptive_threshold":["bullish"],"supported_research_directions":[],"risk_flags":["MODEL_DOES_NOT_BEAT_ALWAYS_LONG","BEARISH_DIRECTION_LOW_HIT_RATE"],"latest_frozen_date":"2026-10-21"},"methodology":"Frozen forecast → real future 5D return → trade-direction hit. Matched always-long GME directional benchmark on the same windows is the minimum comparator. Wilson bounds are descriptive only; overlapping/serially correlated forecasts weaken independent-sample interpretation. Hypothetical signed underlying returns exclude premiums, transaction costs and slippage. Model weights remain OFF without separate approved validation."}